2. The favourite doesn’t always win
This seems obvious to point out but it is difficult for any punter to ignore the price bookies have given.
A good example? When Rafael Nadal took on Fabio Fognini at the Barcelona Open back in April, bookmakers had Nadal as the heavy favourite. He was as short as 1/10 with some.
On the surface this would make sense. Nadal is the King of Clay and has won this very tournament a record-breaking eight times.
What the bookmakers had overlooked was that Fognini had beaten Nadal on clay only a few months earlier in Rio De Janeiro. Combine this with Fognini’s record of knocking out top seeds and suddenly his 8/1 price is looking very attractive.
Fognini went on to beat Nadal in straight sets.
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