EU referendum results live: UK leaves EU – as Nigel Farage celebrates ‘victory’

Birmingham has voted to leave the European Union in Thursday’s membership referendum.

In Manchester it’s just been announced that total turnout is 72.2% with 33,568,184 people having voted.

The Leave campaign only need to win 46% of the remaining votes to win, according to Reuters.

More than 70% of votes have now been counted.

ITV News has now called a victory for Leave.

There are just 77 areas to declare and Leave have swept up more than 13 million of the 16.8 million votes needed to win.

Ceredigion, in West Wales, was ranked by YouGov as the most europhilic region in the UK – it is one of three Welsh regions to back Remain so far, with 54.6 percent. This figure is far lower than expected and shows just how badly Wales as a whole has rejected the EU. The area was set to receive over €1000 per person from the EU development fund by 2014-20.

Daniel Dunford, Data Reporter

Here is a longer extract from Nigel Farage’s controversial ‘victory’ speech:

“If the predications now are right this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people. We have fought against the multinationals, against the big merchant banks, against big politics, against lies against lies, corruption and deceit and today honesty and decency and belief in nation I think now is going to win.

We will have done it without having to fight, without a single bullet having been fired.

I hope this victory brings down this failed projects and brings us to a Europe of sovereign nation states trading together.

Let June the 23rd go down in our history as our independence day.”

Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign secretary, says David Cameron must resign if the UK votes to leave.

“If there were to be a vote to Leave, then as far as the Prime Minister is concerned I don’t see how he is going to remain in his job for very long at all.

I think it’s very hard for him in those circumstances to remain. If you are the prime minister, you’ve called this referendum, you’ve laid your reputation on the line and your arguments, I think it’s going to be very hard.”

A small comfort for the Remain camp which is trailing Leave by more than 589,000 votes now.

There are 109 results left to declare.

Former Downing Street spin doctor Alastair Campbell has said the UK is entering “uncharted territory” as it looks likely that the country has voted to leave the European Union.

We are starting to get reaction from elsewhere as the rest of the world begins to wake up.

Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt called the results so far “beyond comprehension”.

 He believes we can expect “long term uncertainty”:

 And had this to say about sterling:

Result for West Oxfordshire, including David Cameron’s Witney constituency:

Leave: 30,435

Remain: 35,236

Turnout: 79.72%

Nottingham has voted to leave in a tight vote.

Nottingham may have the highest youth population in the UK (one in three voters are aged under 25), but that doesn’t necessarily make it such a disappointing loss for Remain. It’s also got some of the worst figures for employment and a low proportion of upper class voters.

37,309 votes to 35,732 – that’s 51.054% for Brexit

Nigel Farage is claiming victory, arguing it has been achieved “without a bullet being fired”, a comment which has left some people shocked in light of the recent murder of Labour MP Jo Cox.

This is just some of the reaction on Twitter:

Ukip leader Nigel Farage says David Cameron should resign “immediately” if he loses the referendum.

A senior Vote Leave source has told the Telegraph this morning: “As Vote Leave we felt the day was with us from the early dawn on the doorsteps as we dreamed of Independence.

“Should Vote Leave secure this, it will bring in to call the position of the Prime Minister and whether he can remain in post.”

Leave has now won 10 million votes. It needs 16.8 million to declare victory.

They have 51.1% of the vote so far.

About 15 minutes away from the result in the bellwether of Lancaster and there are gloomy faces in the Remain camp. The news from around the country is grim enough for them, but one source says they now fear in the last hour that the Leave camp has edged ahead in the local count.

The pro-European votes from Lancaster itself seem to have been more than countered by pro-Brexit votes from nearby Morecambe.

Ben Farmer, in Lancaster

Our chief political correspondent Christopher Hope puts the referendum into historical context.

The 2016 EU referendum is set to the biggest uprising against the people who run the UK since the Peasants Revolt in 1381.

Britain’s bosses, politicians, church leaders, sports stars, bankers, economists and celebrities told the people to vote to Remain in the UK.

And (by the look of it now) the people sent back a massive V sign. Democracy indeed.

For those of you who have been following this blog since the polls closed, you will recall Nigel Farage calling it for remain, then retracting it and conceding they might win for a second time. Now he’s feel more confident that his own camp is going to claim victory.

Labour is now working on the assumption that Leave is going to win, a party source has told The Guardian.

The newspaper reports that Labour HQ is weighing up whether Jeremy Corbyn should call for David Cameron’s resignation in the event of a Brexit, but senior figures are reportedly saying the move “may prove unnecessary” as Mr Cameron may resign anyway.

The EU referendum results are revealing a divided country: with the euroscepticism of England contrasting the pro-EU results of Scotland and London.

Areas of the East Midlands and Eastern England so far have the strongest Leave votes – with Boston and Castle Point topping the list so far.

Meanwhile, London has been home to the highest Remain votes – excluding the 96 per cent vote in Gibraltar.

Read Ashley Kirk’s full analysis of the results.

Laura Hughes is in Manchester where the final result will be announced. She has this report.

Matthew Elliott, the chief executive of Vote Leave, says he is feeling “cautiously optimistic” this morning.

He says: “It’s looking good for us. We went into the evening optimistic we could do this.”

He says Vote Leave had always said they would wait for people to stop voting before jumping to any conclusions.

“We are not calling it yet”, he says. “There’s still a long way to go and we have to wait for the results in London but at the moment it is looking pretty good.”

He says they haven’t bought a lot of the polls that put Remain ahead and that a lot of “anecdotal evidence” from campaigning has been “very positive” for Vote Leave.

Asked about the panic over sterling, he insists there is “less panic than people are suggesting”.

In the event of a Leave vote, he says he doesn’t think Article 50 would be triggered today and will “be delayed” because David Cameron is “a sensible person he would like to talk to cabinet colleagues and other states before doing anything.”

Leave’s vote share continues to creep up, now at 51.3%.

They are the first side to reach 6 million votes, but they will need 16.8 million to win.

Some 217 results left.

Sir Bill Cash, the eurosceptic Tory MP, says whoever is prime minister will have to be “completely committed to Brexit” if the leave side wins. Not exactly a vote of confidence in David Cameron.

 Peter Murrell, chief executive of the SNP, tweets:

Leave has now surpassed 5 million votes and has 50.7% of the votes so far.

Attentions are turning to what we can expect if the final result is a leave victory.

The experts at the University of East Anglia have just posted another update to their forecasts.

Chris Hanretty, reader in politics, writes on his blog:

My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.

• Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
• (81 of 382 areas reporting.)
• Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
• (90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)

Our chief political correspondent Christopher Hope has this update.

Tomorrow will be a meltdown for the Prime Minister. A narrow win and he is in trouble. A Brexit and he can’t last. One former Tory Cabinet minister tells me: “Cameron is toast.”

Leave has 50.3% of the votes so far with 271 results left to declare.

The Leave campaign also looks to be the first to reach four million votes – but they will need 16.8 million to win.

Watford voting to Leave – even by just 0.6 percent – is very surprising. It’s close to London, more than four in ten are University educated and under 25s outnumber over 65s two to one.

The EU referendum race is now absolutely neck-and-neck with just a few thousand votes between the two camps.

But with some 285 results still to be declared, there’s still plenty to play for.

While London and Scotland are overwhelmingly pro-EU, the rest of England is a very mixed picture. The north east is strongly pro-Brexit and they are performing well elsewhere across the country too.

The question now is whether the support for the EU in the capital and north of the border is strong enough to pull the rest of England through?

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, says he expects the Bank of England to intervene in the morning. He told the BBC:

“That is exactly the sort of shock we were expecting so I would expect the Bank of England to intervene in the morning.

Chancellors and shadow chancellors can’t comment on sterling but what we can do is have a mature approach to this and say whatever the outcome, we will negotiate the best deal we possibly can with regard to our trading partners in Europe and in that way we might give some assurances to the market.”

John Bingham explores how the EU referendum has creation divisions in Labour, not just the Tories.

While attention has focussed for months on the divisions in the Tories, Kate Hoey the strongly pro-Brexit Labour MP has been speaking about the looming crisis for Labour. She says it will face a huge uphill struggle to win back its traditional voters – but the leadership question also hangs in the balance.

“I think there are some people in our party who will do anything to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn,” she tells ITV news.

“I feel sorry for Jeremy because I know that he has been in the same lobby as me on the EU for 27 years.

“He has now become leader of the party, he has felt he has to keep the party together.

“He has been saying all the things about the EU that I’ve been saying, that Labour Leave have been saying but he has been saying he thinks it can be reformed.

“There will be pressure now but I feel that in the end it is going to be more about, overall, that even if Jeremy Corbyn were to go the party still has to change its views.”

With 71 out of 382 counting areas declared, Leave is now expected to be the most likely outcome, at least by those betting money on the outcome.

Oddschecker compiled betting odds now suggest that there is a 55pc chance of a Brexit result. For the first time, withdrawing from the EU is considered more likely than staying.

All seven areas in Wales to declare so far have backed Leave – four by over 56 per cent. This will be concerning for Remain, as this nation was supposed to be the closest in the UK – and YouGov had predicted a small Remain win here overall.

Ashley Kirk, Data Reporter

The highest figure was in Hartlepool with 69.5 per cent of people voting Leave.

The first north east result came from Newcastle with a narrow Remain victory at 50.7 per cent but it was short lived.

Sunderland swiftly followed with a higher than expected 61.3 per cent Leave vote.

The roar from the sports hall a clear indication that even Leave’s own supporters were not expecting victory by such a margin. Sunderland’s lead campaigner Richard Elvin even admitted “in my heart of hearts I never expected this”.

Gradually Remain’s hopes for a northern win were decimated as Middlesbrough voted 65.4 per cent Leave, Redcar 66.2 per cent, South Tyneside 62 per cent and Stockton 61.7 per cent.

Turnouts were higher than in the general election in many places. Mr Elvin said people had “voted with their feet” and we’re fed up of being “forgotten”.

Nicola Harley, in Sunderland

Stevenage: Remain 40.8%, Leave 59.2%

Newport: Remain 44.0%, Leave 56.0%

Bracknell Forest: Remain 46.1%, Leave 53.9%

Burnley: Remain 33.4%, Leave 66.6%

Tamworth: Remain 32.5%, Leave 67.5%

Conwy: Remain 46.0%, Leave 54.0%

Stirling: Remain 67.7%, Leave 32.3%

Exeter: Remain 55.3%, Leave 44.7%

Lambeth: Remain 78.6%, Leave 21.4%

Oxford: Remain 70.3%, Leave 29.7%

South Ayrshire: Remain 59.0%, Leave 41.0%

Glasgow City: Remain 66.6%, Leave 33.4%

Falkirk: Remain 56.8%, Leave 43.2%

North Warwickshire: Remain 33.1%, Leave 66.9%

Isle of Anglesey: Remain 49.1%, Leave 50.9%

Fareham: Remain 44.9%, Leave 55.1%

A Labour source has told The Guardian that they blame the SNP for a lower than expected turnout.

“Turnout in Scotland has been considerably lower than expected. The SNP, the dominant party which ran huge campaigns for the independence referendum, UK election and Scottish elections, has run a lacklustre campaign with minimal ground activity.

Sturgeon had more to say about criticising the Remain camp than making the positive case for Europe and she was nowhere to be seen until the dying days of the campaign.”

Remain 55.3%, Leave 44.7%

Remain 42.0%, Leave 58.0%

Another forecast just in from the experts at the University of East Anglia – things are definitely shifting in favour of Leave:

• Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.03
• (33 of 382 areas reporting.)
• Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.5 percent.
• (90% prediction interval: 45.5 to 49.6 percent)

Sterling is heading ever lower against the dollar – on track for its worst losses against the US currency in at least the last three decades.

It is currently trading down more than 4.2pc as traders contemplate the likelihood of a Brexit victory. That puts the pound on track for a greater fall than that of “Black Wednesday”, when the UK left the ERM in 1992. On that day, the pound dropped by just 4.1pc.

Meanwhile, Asian markets are waking up and reckoning with the consequences. Expect to see some fall out in bourses there once they open up for trading.

 Follow the latest reaction from the markets here.

Remain 58.3%, Leave 41.7%

Remain 46.0%, Leave 54.0%

Remain 74.3%, Leave 25.7%

A tweet from the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuennsberg:

Paul Nuttall, Ukip’s deputy leader, predicts the party will enjoy an SNP-style surge in support even if the country votes to remain in the EU tonight.

He told Sky News: “The SNP have done quite well out of losing a tight referendum. Anger is a very powerful emotion in politics and people, I think, will come to Ukip in their droves.”

Leave has now become the favourite on Betfair.

Lancaster turnout is a high 72.7 per cent we have just learned. Still a good hour of counting expected though.

Remain 33.8%, Leave 66.2%

Remain 46.7%, Leave 53.3%

Belfast West: Remain 74.1%, Leave 25.9%

North Down: Remain 52.4%, Leave 47.6%

Bury: Remain, 45.9%, Leave 54.1%

Harlow: Remain 31.9%, Leave 68.1%

Tom Watson, the deputy Labour leader, tells Sky News: “It’s very hard to tell (what the result will be) with such a small number of results in.

“We’re not going to know the result for some hours, but whatever the result it will be very close. This will be a knife-edge vote.

“The country is more divided now than at the beginning of the process and that’s a great challenge for the Prime Minister.”

Remain 48.5%, Leave 51.5%

This is very interesting. We were expecting Swansea to vote to remain by about 55 per cent.

Remain 37.6%, Leave 62.4%

Remain 41.9%, Leave 58.1%

City of London: Remain 75.3%, Leave 24.7%

Inverclyde: Remain 63.8%, Leave 36.2%

Weymouth and Portland: Remain 39%, Leave 61%

Middlesbrough: Remain 34.5%, Leave 65.5%

Blaenau Gwent: Remain 38%, Leave 62%

Flintshire: Remain 43.6%, Leave 56.4%

Brentwood: Remain, 40.8%, Leave 59.2%

Strangford: Remain 44.5%, Leave 55.5%

A third forecast from the experts at the University of East Anglia – predicting a win for Leave.

• Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.32
• (15 of 382 areas reporting.)
• Predicted vote share for Remain: 48.9 percent.
• (90% prediction interval: 44.5 to 53.3 percent)

Remain 33.4%, Leave 66.6%

Remain 64.8%, Leave 35.2%

Remain 62.1%, Leave 37.9%

Remain 43.6%, Leave 56.4%

Remain 38.3%, Leave 61.7%

Remain 31%, Leave 69%

Remain 30.4%, Leave 69.6%

Tim Stanley reveals why Leave shouldn’t get too excited just yet.

“We’re all very excited about the early results from the northeast because they’ve shown that working-class, industrial areas are coming out for Leave big time. But hold fire. We might see that balanced out by voting in London. Moreover, I think Leave should be mildly anxious about the Swindon result. It was closer than they expected. Swindon is swing Labour/Tory. More representative, perhaps, of the rest of the nation.

What are we looking for in the next hour or so? Results are thought to come flooding in around 2am. For Leave to win it needs to a) have huge leads in both Labour areas and Tory shires and b) it needs Remain victories to be smaller than expected. It also needs a reduced turnout in Remain areas. Interesting prediction by John Curtice: poor weather may have reduced turnout in London to something below the national average. If so, then big margins for Remain there will make little difference.”

A senior Labour MP suggested he might punch “tosspot” Ed Miliband over the state he has left the party in.

Chris Bryant hit out when the former Labour leader appeared on the big screen television at the Stronger In referendum party, where he was being interviewed live.

Talking to guests at the event, the shadow Commons leader made clear his views about the Doncaster North MP. He said: “I might go and punch him because he’s a tosspot and he left the party in the state it’s in.”

Remain 58.6%, Leave 41.4%

The former Liberal Democrat leader says voters must be listened to.

The Remain campaigners in West Oxfordshire are starting to look very glum as they pick up news from other parts of the country.

Nearby Swindon’s vote to Leave appears to have dented their confidence, leaving them to rely on the mantra that it’s “early days yet” to keep up their morale.

In the county itself, which includes David Cameron’s Witney constituency, the smaller villages – fertile Liberal Democrat territory – appear to have voted solidly to stay in the EU, while the vote is much tighter in the towns, such as Carterton, Chipping Norton and Witney itself.

“It’s not running quite in the direction we wanted,” said one Remain campaigner. “But it’s early days yet.”

Patrick Sawer, in Witney

Lagan Valley: Remain 46.9%, Leave 53.1%

North Antrim: Remain 37.8%, Leave 62.2%

Eilean Siar: Remain 55.2%, Leave 44.8%

West Tyrone: Remain 66.8%, 33.2%

Dundee City: Remain 59.8%, Leave 40.2%

Andy Burnham, the shadow home secretary who is hoping to become Manchester mayor, has called for a review of freedom of movement within the EU, telling Labour supporters: “We’ve heard you, we understand what you’re saying.”

Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, said concerns about immigration had come up on the door step and urged the party to learn “lessons” from the campaign.

Liz Kendall, the former Labour leadership contender, said: “May I humbly request no ‘this is a huge wake-up call’ comments. Some of us have been ‘awake’ for a little while.”

John McDonnell, the Labour shadow chancellor, said that voters are “cheesed off” about issues like migration.

“I’ve been touring round meetings all around the country and up North there’s been clearly a reaction against the state of the economy, grievances. People are cheesed off.

“Their wages have been frozen. They’ve identified the issue of migration as one of the issues, politicians not listening to them. It’s almost like a by-election protest vote, to a certain extent, in some areas.”

Christopher Hope, at Leave.EU’sxit Party, speaks to the Labour leader’s brother.

Piers Corbyn has turned up at the BrexitParty and he has stepped in to defend his brother Jeremy’s referendum campaign and backed him to be leader in 2020.

He tells the Telegraph: “To be fair how he has handled himself in this campaign he has been very straightforward and honest compared with certain other politicians.”

Asked if the problem was that Jeremy Corbyn was secretly a Brexiteer, he added: “You have to ask Jeremy any questions like that.

“But in terms of what he has been saying he has been more straightforward and honest than others and is going to help with any negotiations that come forward and he is best placed to play an important role in them.”

Asked if his brother will still be leader in 2020, he said: “Obviously.”

Asked if Jeremy Corbyn would be “happy” with an out vote, Piers Corbyn added: “He will be happy with what happens as long as it is a democratic process.”

Labour sources told the Telegraph there were fears Nissan could pull out of the area if Leave are successful nationally.

The firm, which backed Remain, employs 670 people in Sunderland.

The Telegraph was told that tariffs imposed with a Brexit win could see it relocate out of the UK and described it as “disastrous”.

Nicola Harley, in Sunderland

 The eurosceptic Leader of the House of Commons has spoken out about the future of David Cameron’s position as Prime Minister.

Remain 38%, Leave 62%

 This just in from the polling expert John Curtice:

The University of East Anglia’s referendum live blog predicts, on the basis of the first five results, that there will be a narrow win for Leave.

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0.48 (5 of 382 areas reporting.)

Predicted vote share for Remain: 49.8 percent.

(90% prediction interval: 42.7 to 56.8 percent)

Remain 56.5%, Leave 43.5%

Remain 62%, Leave 38%

Remain 39%, Leave 61%

Matthew Holehouse, in Brussels, says things have turned sour at the Funky Monkey bar.

The party’s over in Brussels. The Funky Monkey, an Irish pub next to the European Commission HQ, had been packed when polls shut at 10pm, and officials were in high spirits as Gibraltar declared at 96 per cent for in.

But as Remain were dealt two heavy blows in Sunderland and Newcastle, the mood suddenly turned sour. “F—!” shouted one official. Others had tears in their eyes and headed for the door. At half past one local time, the TVs were turned off, and staff trudged home.  Over the road, lights were burning all over the Berlaymont HQ. At 10.30am Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker and Mark Rutte will meet to digest what it all means for Europe.

The weather has had an effect on turnout in London, the pollster John Curtice says.

Could that affect the Remain side who are hoping for strong support from the capital?

Sunderland MP Bridget Phillipson, who campaigned for Remain, said she believes the city will be the hardest hit it Leave triumph today.

“The reason I have campaigned so strongly for Remain was because our area, I believe, will be the hardest hit by leaving the EU,” she said. “Times are tough for lots of families, wages remain low and unemployment high.Time and time again our region is left behind in terms of jobs and investment.”

Chuka Umunna, the Labour MP, has said when asked about the results: “We are a divided country.”

“This could go either way.”

“We have to find a way of dealing with the immigration issue in a Labour way,” he told Sky News.

In Lancaster, the area’s white working class estates, which contain many traditional Labour voters, are rejecting the party’s Remain stance and voting heavily for out, early indications suggest.

Sunderland’s result has also buoyed Leave campaigners in the town hall. But a very mixed picture overall, with the university area voting almost totally for remain.

Ben Farmer, in Lancaster

Remain 56.4%, Leave 43.6%

Leave 66%, Remain 34%

Leave 55% (51,220 votes), Remain 45% (61,745 votes)

Turnout 75.8%

It is being reported that the London borough of Lewisham is showing around 83% for remain.

Fredrik Reinfeldt, the former Swedish prime minister and Cameron ally, has been speaking about the effects of the Brexit vote on the rest of Europe. Speaking to ITV News he signalled it could herald a new multi-track Europe.

“I think what David Cameron actually achieved was to say that this one-size-fits all Europe which has created such a worry in Britain is not the Europe for the future,” he said.

“This will be a European Union that actually could go in some kinds of different directions at the same time.

“There will be, I hope, a British membership of the European Union but still a British pound and this is very like the Swedish debate, we want to be members of the European Union but we want to keep our own currency.

“And I think that he has established now that there could be different means to actually have different kinds of membership and I think that’s really important.”

John Bingham, Social and Religious Affairs Editor

The results are in from this Northern Ireland area: Remain 78.3%, Leave 21.7%

Tim Stanley explains why Labour insiders will be worried about the north east results so far.

“Labour insiders must be a bit troubled by the early results in the north east. That’s Labour’s heartland and Labour was technically all for Remain. Yet the result was very close in Newcastle and Sunderland went for Leave with 61 per cent. So this represents a rebellion against Labour as much as against the Tories.

That said, is Corbyn personally hurt by the possibility of mass working-class Brexitism? Not necessarily. He almost played a Wilson in this campaign, choosing not to be too emotionally pro-EU. Moreover, this referendum leaves him in a strong position to argue that neo-liberalism isn’t popular and that only anti-austerity politics will rejuvenate socialist support in the north.”

Former Labour leadership candidate Liz Kendall has already tweeted about the issue:

New Ladbrokes odds just in: Remain 2/5 Leave 7/4

The City has come alive to the possibility of Brexit.

A larger than expected turnout for Leave in Newcastle, and a much heavier Brexit win than anticipated in Sunderland have knocked the pound heavily against the dollar.

Joe Rundle, of ETX Capital, says: “The pound is plummeting as Sunderland votes heavily for Leave. Markets are very nervy at the moment as the polls – and the markets – could be wrong. The Sunderland result has definitely altered the tone of the evening and markets are getting very choppy.”

We will bring you the key moments from the markets here in this blog, but if you want more detail on that front then check out my colleague Peter Spence’s blog.

Ben Riley-Smith has this on a fascinating TV appearance from one of the leading Tory Brexit rebels.

Steve Baker, one of the Tory MPs who led the campaign for Britain to leave the EU, has refused to endorse George Osborne to remain in post as Chancellor.

Appearing on BBC One as a poll suggested there would be a Remain vote, Mr Baker said David Cameron should stay in post and urged colleagues not to put in no confidence letters.

Mr Baker was among 65 Tory MPs who said Mr Osborne’s position would be “untenable” if he brought forward a so-called Brexit Budget of tax rises and spending cuts after an Out vote.

He was asked by a BBC reporter on Thursday night: “You’ve stated your support for David Cameron. Would you state your support for George Osborne to continue as chancellor?”

Mr Baker responded: “If George Osborne brings forward that Budget we’ll vote it down, but these are not really matters for me, it’s a matter for the Prime Minister when all things are considered.”

It suggests some Tory MPs are unwilling to forgive the Chancellor for the campaign he has orchestrated to keep Britain in the EU, dubbed ‘Project Fear’ by critics.

At the Windrush Leisure Centre, in Witney, the unofficial talk is of a 54% vote for Remain across the West Oxfordshire region.

That’s interesting because it includes David Cameron’s constituency and if borne out by the final result the Prime Minister will have won the argument in his own backyard.

One senior figure on the Remain camp said: “I’m feeling very positive. It’s early, but the indications are good.”

While some of the smaller, affluent villages in the area have returned as high as 62% in favour of Remain, it appears the result in towns such as Chipping Norton, close to where Mr Cameron has his family home, is tighter.

Ian Hudspeth, the Conservative leader of Oxfordshire County Council, and a supporter of staying in the EU, said: “The Remain message has been a harder sell on the doorstep. It’s not as sexy. You’re essentially arguing for things to stay as they are. But it’s interesting what’s coming out of the count so far.

Patrick Sawer, in Witney

Nicola Harley is in Sunderland where there are big celebrations for the Brexit camp.

Huge celebrations as Leave campaign triumph in Sunderland with 61.3 per cent.

Experts had predicted Brexit would fail nationally if the Sunderland result was anything lower than a six point gap.

The sports hall roared as the results were announced.

The city had one of its largest ever postal vote returns with 78 per cent of the 89,000 people who applied voting.

It’s overall vote turnout was higher than the general election with 64.9% of people voting, compared to 56.2%.

Political academic Chris Hanretty, a reader in politics at the University of East Anglia, had predicted that if the Leave campaign fail to win with a big margin in the first a ballot declared then it could be all over for the Brexit campaign.

He said anything lower than a six point gap in Sunderland would indicate the Brexit campaign cannot win.

Tim Stanley analyses the way Nigel Farage has flip-flopped on his predictions.

“Nigel Farage’s evening has mirrored his performance in the referendum: one controversy after another. First he appeared to concede. Then he unconceded. Then he reconceded. Then he took it all back. He told the Telegraph that the Government’s decision to extend the period for registering helped Remain. Thus we see the beginnings of the stabbed in the back myth of this referendum – the inevitable claim that it just wasn’t fair.

Farage’s later statement that the “genii is out of the bottle” and there is a long war ahead is very significant. It means that even if he loses, he expects Ukip to fight on. That’s logical. Presuming that the result is quite close, Ukip can claim that it fought a good fight but was beaten by Project Fear and the tragedy of last week. Ironically, a victory for Leave would’ve killed Ukip off by removing its central raison d’etre.

Quite what role Farage will personally play in that is unclear. This referendum would never have happened without him: the Eurosceptics have to acknowledge that. But his preference for focusing on immigration was controversial and may have lost as many votes as it won. That infamous poster will haunt him for some time to come.”

Laurence Dodds says the scale of Leave’s win in Sunderland is surprising.

“It’s no surprise that Sunderland has voted for Brexit. It’s an old shipbuilding and coalmining city full of the “left behind” white working class voters who make up Leave’s core vote. It’s consistently rated as a Eurosceptic city.

But what is surprising is the size of the margin. 61% of Sunderland’s voters picked Leave, while only 39% went for Remain. Compare that to the 46/40 predicted by political scientist Chris Hanretty or to the 56/43 predicted by JP Morgan.”

Remain 57.8%, Leave 42.2%

Remain 51,930, Leave 82,394, Turnout 65%

This is a huge result for the Leave campaign and will certainly unsettle those thinking Remain have got it in the bag.

There is a 22 per cent chance that David Cameron will leave Downing Street this year according to Ladbrokes, despite news that84 MPs who supported a vote to Leave have released a joint letter supporting the Prime Minister.

Theresa May, and not Boris Johnson, is currently favourite in the betting to replace him.

Matthew Shaddick, Head of Political Betting at Ladbrokes, said: “The fact that only 84 MPs signed the letter is significant, meaning 44 Leave-supporting MPs did not. There is certainly a chance that he could go this year as the Tory infighting ensues.

“Despite widespread agreement that Boris Johnson is in pole position to replace him, Theresa May leads the Ladbrokes betting. May has been noticeably quiet over the course of this campaign and this was no accident, keeping her relationships across the party as strong as possible despite an extremely divisive period. For us, she is the one to beat.

Closely-watched EU referendum betting markets have come alive in the last few minutes, as punters splash cash on the chance of a Brexit outcome.

A flood of money has pushed up the odds of a Leave outcome to 18pc on Betfair, one of the largest bookmakers. The perception of a higher chance of a UK exit has come in tandem with a fall in the pound, now at around $1.4925.

Peter Spence

The results are in from the Orkney island and they have voted 63.2 per cent for Remain and 36.8 per cent for Leave. The turnout was 68.3 per cent.

Nigel Farage has said he thinks Remain have won the EU referendum with 52 per cent of the vote.

Speaking to the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope at the Leave.EU party, he said: “

He said the “government did a very good job” by extending the deadline for voting to let another two million voters register.

Asked if he thought the poll might fall 52 per cent/ 48 per cent in favour of Remain he said: “That sounds about right. Who knows?

“We could all  be in for the most extraordinary surprise – we were last year. That is my sense of it.”

Labour sources have told The Telegraph that Leave are looking at a comfortable Sunderland victory of 60/40. If this is the case then this could be a very interesting twist to tonight’s events.

“The Newcastle result is the first shock of the night. This counting area – one of the referendum’s largest – was expected to come out much more strongly for Remain. JP Morgan, one of the largest and most influential investment banks, expected 66.8pc of the vote for Remain. The actual margin of victory was much smaller, with only 51pc voting to stay in.”

Peter Spence

Newcastle announces before Sunderland!

We have our second result of the night and it’s from Newcastle upon Tyne.

The first area of Great Britain to declare tonight will be Sunderland. It’s always Sunderland. That’s not because of some special demographic factor or quirk of geography, but because of a “military operation” which owes its genesis to one council official’s vision.

That official is Bill Crawford, the city’s elections officer since 1975. His quest began in 1992, the year Sunderland became a city, and also the year Sunderland AFC reached the FA cup final (Liverpool won 2-0). Back then, Torbay in Devon was the reigning champion, and Crawford set out to beat it. He did.

Since then, he has made being first to count his quest. He’s trained Catholic schoolgirls to race the ballot boxes into the counting station. He’s put barcodes on all of them (the boxes, not the schoolgirls) so that he can track each one’s movement between the polling station and the count and investigate any delays. He has his 1,200 trained counters rehearse for months in advance. He has even changed the thickness of the ballot papers from 100gsm to 80gsm to make them easier to handle.

“You’ve got a choice. You can say, ‘We’re going to take our time, and people will need to take breaks,’ or you can say, ‘No, we’re not going to do that. We’re going to put our hand to the wheel and push on and do it quickly, so everyone does their best and we can finish relatively quickly.’” Not the hero we deserve, perhaps, but the hero we need.

Crawford stepped down after the 2015 General Election, to be replaced by the no doubt very capable Lindsay Dixon.

Laurence Dodds

Let’s not get carried away. We have one result, Gibraltar. Plenty more to come.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage has this to say: “What has dominated this campaign is an issue Westminster finds very difficult to talk about. An issue for which I have been demonised. That issue, if we do vote to Remain, is not going to go away. The eurosceptic genie is out of the bottle.”

The results from Gibraltar are in and as you can imagine it is overwhelmingly in favour of Remain.

Whatever people in either camp are hinting at elsewhere, in the bellwether of Lancaster, observers say it is still too close to call.

The varied district ranges from the faded seaside town of Morcambe, where Leave is expected to be far ahead, to the twin universities of Lancaster itself, which one campaigner says is “full of Guardianistas and vegetarian cafes”.

The district also takes in many rural communities split on whether the EU is good, or bad, for farming.

Janet Hall , chief counting officer for the Labour In campaign, said: “It’s a bit like the country, I think we are going to be very close. I think the turnout across the different areas will be very important.”

Ben Farmer, in Lancaster

A little ray of hope for the Brexit camp, with The Spectator’s James Forsyth tweeting this:

Another picture just in from Sunderland which is expected to be one of the first places to declare.

It is the regional counting centre for the North East of England and is somewhere that the Leave camp ought to be five or six points ahead if it is to win nationally.

Total number of voters in in Sunderland is 64.9% compared to 56.2% in the general election The number of eligible voters is 207,221.

John Curtice, the polling expert, has said that the EU referendum “might still be the first nationwide contest to record at least a 70% turnout since the 1997 General Election”.

The turnout for the EU Referendum in West Oxfordshire, which covers David Cameron’s Witney constituency, was around 80 per cent, according to the counting officer Keith Butler.

That is high, and compares to the turnout of 73 per cent in Witney at the 2015 general election.

No indication yet whether such a good voter turn out has favoured the Leavers or the Remainers in this part of the country.

Patrick Sawer, in Witney

David Cameron has a “mandate and a duty” to continue as Prime Minister, Eurosceptic MPs and Cabinet members have said in an attempt to unite the party following the EU referendum.

More than 80 Eurosceptic Tory MPs – including every Cabinet minister who voted Leave – signed a letter addressed to Mr Cameron, urging him to remain as Prime Minister regardless of the referendum result.

 However, scores of Conservative MPs are thought to have refused to sign the letter, which will intensify concerns in Downing Street that Mr Cameron’s most vocal opponents could still attempt to launch a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister in the weeks after the vote.

Read the full story by Peter Dominiczak and Steven Swinford.

Douglas Carswell, Ukip’s only MP, suggests he is not going to give up fighting against the EU.

He says: “I don’t think anyone should be under the impression that because of the way people voted on Thursday the fundamental problem that affect the European Union are magically going to disappear … The European Union, whether we voted to leave or stay, is fundamentally flawed in its current form.”

Ukip leader Nigel Farage has told the Press Association he thinks Britain has  voted to stay in the European Union based on “what I know from some of my  friends in the financial markets who have done some big polling”.

Liz Truss also says she is “positive” about a Remain outcome, adding that the potential impact on jobs and the economy had struck a chord with voters.

We are getting reports of high turnouts across the country.

For example in Kettering they are reporting a 76% turnout, while the Remain camp are said to be feeling quite buoyed up by big turnouts in places like the City of London. In Newcastle upon Tyne the turnout is 68 per cent.

Theresa Villiers, the eurosceptic Northern Ireland Secretary, says: “My instinct is Remain have won.  I would put it down to Project Fear succeeding.”

Mrs Villiers says that “whatever the result” David Cameron should stay on as Prime Minister.

“The Prime Minister is the best man for the job,” she says.

I‘m afraid those hoping for a Brexit will find no confident in the betting markets.

A source close to Boris Johnson has told The Telegraph: “It looks too close to call and it could go either way.”

They also dismissed the suggestion that Mr Johnson had earlier conceded defeat to a man on the Tube.

Matthew Holehouse is in a Brussels bar and has this report for you.

I’m in the Funky Monkey, a sticky-floored Irish pub by the Berlaymont HQ, as EU officials watch the results come in.

The bar is buzzing. The early opinion polls had left officials quietly confident that Britain will remain.

Some have gone to bed early, ready to respond in case the markets dive in the morning.

If the turn out is high and it’s for Remain, it will be read here – rightly or not – as a massive democratic endorsement of the EU project and will give leaders confidence that Eurosceptics elsewhere can be faced down.

I‘m told that Nigel Farage has “re-conceded” that it looks like Remain has won.

But it’s not quite that easy – as the BBC’s David Dimbleby has just urged “caution” before people start declaring for either side, after all we haven’t actually had any results yet.

This Ipsos Moro on-the-day poll will give confidence to the Remain side, however.

Ben Riley-Smith, our political correspondent, has been looking at the breakdown of YouGov’s voting day poll.

Almost a third of Labour voters backed Brexit, according to the YouGov poll conducted on the day.

In findings that could cause problems for Jeremy Corbyn, 31 per cent of Labour supporters wanted to leave the EU.

The Labour leader was warned that the party could lose a million voters to Ukip because of the pro-EU stance he took during the referendum campaign.

A breakdown of YouGov’s voting day poll, which asked 3,000 people how they would vote – but crucially did not ask them after they cast their ballot – give a fascinating breakdown by party.  Some 57 per cent of Tories were planning to vote for Brexit, while just 43 per cent supported staying in the EU – figures that will please Brexit-backing Tory leadership hopefuls such as Boris Johnson.

Almost a quarter of Liberal Democrats backed Brexit, while – bizarrely – 7 per cent of Ukip supporters were going to vote to stay in the EU.

Leading Leave campaigner and Labour MP Kate Hoey says “we’ll get close and we could still win”. That doesn’t sound hugely confident, but she does add: “Whatever happens, this will not go away.”

A ballot box is carried into the Royal Horticultural Halls in London.

Ben Farmer is at the bellwether City of Lancaster for us.

Counting is quickly underway in the north western bellwether City of Lancaster, where ballot boxes are being delivered to splendour of the town hall.

The local paper on Thursday published a poll predicting a leave vote for the city.

The survey in the Lancaster Guardian’s Thursday edition found 64 per cent of its readers wanted Brexit.

In contrast, the online poll of 701 people found only 33 per cent would be voting to remain, with just three per cent undecided.

A Ukip source has told ITV news that they are “not optimistic” for a Leave win.

They suggested that a high turnout today has helped the Remain campaign.

Our interactive poll tracker has been updated to reflect the 10pm YouGov poll which points to a narrow Remain victory.

A little twist here. Nigel Farage earlier conceded that it looked like remain had won.

Apparently he has now “unconceded”. Is that even a thing?

Chris Grayling on the prospect of the Prime Minister resigning: “It would be an absolute nonsense … We are completely behind him staying, we want him to stay.”

Telegraph columnist Tim Stanley says the mood in the Leave camp is already grim.

“Voting is over and already the mood is a bit grim in the Leave camp. Polls today generally showed a move towards Remain, the markets seem to be sure the country will vote to stay, Nigel Farage has all but conceded and Number 10 is feeling very good indeed. Turnout is believed to be very, very high – and Iain Duncan Smith claims that it was exceptionally so on council estates. We might tonight get to see the scale of Britain’s cultural divide.

Should any of this surprise us? No. The nation favoured Remain at the beginning of the campaign. Leave gained ground in the last month but it appeared to be arrested last week. No wonder, for Leave was up against the entire British and global establishment – with a few notable exceptions. Anyway, first result around midnight. Time for tea.”

Patrick Sawer has been in the Prime Minister’s constituency of Witney for us.

David Cameron might enjoy high levels of personal and political support in Witney, but that did not stop many of the Prime Minister’s own constituents casting their referendum votes against him.

Voting was brisk at polling stations around the west Oxfordshire constituency – at general election levels, said one polling station teller – and even before the polls shut at 10pm it was clear a large number of voters were deeply unhappy with his support for Britain’s continued membership of the EU.

“I like David Cameron, I do,” said Tammy McGuire, 42, as she left the town’s handsome 1863 Corn Exchange building after voting.

“But I don’t agree with him on Europe. The EU is not nearly as democratic as it could be and I would prefer Westminster to make the rules and have the final say.

“I’m also really annoyed with the way the liberal intelligentsia has been labelling everyone who wants to leave as racist and xenophobic when it’s simply not true.”

Ms McGuire, a public care consultant and former social worker, added: “It’s been such a fractious campaign, and I’ve been torn. I would have backed remaining in Europe it the EU had shown any willingness to negotiate, but they’ve said they won’t and that’s what finally did it for me.”

Independence from Brussels, and the ability of a British parliament to fully determine its own affairs, was cited by several of Witney’s Brexiters, young and old, as motivating them to vote leave.

“It’s not about race or immigration for me,” said Clare Mobbs, 35, a nursery nurse. “I welcome everyone here.  But I just want the UK to be in charge of its own future.”

Her friend Beth Spearman, 41, a Post Office clerk, said: “I voted out because I want to see if we can do it by ourselves. I don’t like the fact people think that if you want to leave the EU you’re racist. We need people to come here and work and I’m happy for them to do so.

“For me it’s about controlling our own destiny. At the moment we seem to be paying a lot of money to be told what to do by Europe.”

But for many in the affluent former wool  town – where Mr Cameron enjoyed a majority of more than 25,000 at the last general election, but whose elegant green has for weeks been dominated by a large Vote Leave banner – the prospect of quitting the EU has left them fearful of the future.

Margaret, 83, a retired legal cashier – she preferred not to give her surname – said: “I really feel quite strongly about this. I’ve lived through a war and I would not want to go back to the way things were. We need our friends and allies in Europe. There is strength in unity and that’s why I voted to remain.”

At the other end of the generational divide was Jamie M, an 18-year-old IT student from the town.

“I voted because I’ve always thought it’s important to have your say and if you don’t you can’t really complain,” he said. “The referendum has only come about because of false and misleading scare stories about immigration.

“The problems we have are going to cost millions to unravel anyway, but if we leave it will cost even more. That’s why I voted ‘In’. It’s just the safer option.”

The voter turnout in Gibraltar, which is expected to be one of the first areas to report its results, was 83.65 per cent.

Now that the polls have closed, David Cameron’s private parliamentary secretary has called for unity.

Gavin Williamson, the MP for South Staffordshire, tweeted to say now is the time “for us all to come together”:

No messing around here.

We expect Sunderland, in the North East, to be one of the first places to declare.

A new YouGov poll released at 10pm gives REMAIN a 4-point lead:

REMAIN 52% LEAVE 48%

Joe Twyman, head of political and social research at YouGov: “Today YouGov conducted a survey, going back to the same people we spoke to yesterday to find out how they actually voted. The survey found a small move to Remain and based on these results we expect the United Kingdom to continue as a member of the European Union.

“Remain are on 52% with Leave on 48%.

“The results are close and it too early to call it definitively. But these results, along with the recent trends and historical precedent, suggest a Remain victory is the more likely outcome.”

Leave.EU has conducted a nationwide poll of over 10,000 people over the last 48 hours.

The results are as follows: Leave 52% Remain 48%

The poll was conducted between 1800 on June 21 and 1800 on June 23 and suggests a narrow Leave victory.

The poll excludes those that said they would not be voting or undecided.

Polls have closed and Nigel Farage is predicting that REMAIN has won.

As the polls have just closed, has Boris Johnson conceded defeat? Or is he being mischievous?

Londoner Lewis Iwu tweeted this picture after he bumped into the former Mayor of London on the underground this evening.

He was asked if he voted leave but Mr Iwu said no and suggested that Mr Johnson had in fact conceded defeat.

Boris Johnson has finally made it to the polling station with just a few minutes to spare. Here is his pictured with his wife Marina.

Mr Johnson had a busy day at his daughter’s graduation ceremony in St Andrew’s.

There’s still a few minutes left to vote and so long as you are in the queue by 10pm you will be fine.

Although voting will close at 10pm tonight, the future of Britain’s relationship with the European Union will not be known until at least nine hours later, at 7am on Friday.

The tension will be greater than normal general election nights because the major broadcasters have not commissioned any exit polls over concerns about accuracy.

There were also no exit polls at the Scottish referendum in September 2014 which meant that the result was only known when the No campaign had won more than 50 per cent of the votes cast.

The results themselves will come in during a frantic three-hour period on Friday, between 4am and 7am; by breakfast time, the result of the EU referendum should be known.

You can read more here.

As we move into the final hours of voting there are reports starting to emerge on social media that turnout is very high.

One MP I spoke to said her local polling station was still busy at 11.30am this morning, when things would normally have calmed down after people headed to work.

YouGov experts have predicted that high turnout will benefit the Remain campaign, but it’s still all to play for until the result is announced.

Stormont’s First Minister has expressed hope of a high turn-out in Northern Ireland as voters continued to cast their ballots in the EU referendum.

Arlene Foster, a Brexit campaigner, said it was important that those on both sides of the debate made their voices heard.

“I understand there has been a good turn-out in some of the areas where previously there hasn’t been so far – so that’s good to hear,” she said.

The Democratic Unionist leader added: “Everyone has the opportunity to cast their vote today and I hope they take that opportunity, regardless of what that might be, because this is a huge opportunity for all the citizens of the United Kingdom to make their voices heard in terms of the European Union.”

Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams, a Remain advocate, also encouraged people to get out and vote.

“Come out and vote, if you haven’t voted there is still time, vote to remain – it’s not in Ireland’s interests to do anything else,” he said.

We’ve been bringing you weather updates throughout the day and while some parts  of the country have had sunshine this evening London and the south is struggling to cope with the torrential rain.

Waterloo station appears to have ground to a halt, while there are reportedly long queues outside Victoria.

Many voters are concerned they may not make it back in time to vote.

At least this one driver has seen the funny side…

Brisk voting throughout a glorious midsummer day in the Lancaster, which is viewed as a bellwether for the rest of the country, Ben Farmer reports.

Observers say turnout across polling stations appears far higher than for the 2015 General Election, when 68.6 per cent of voters took part.

The eyes of the UK will be upon the historic city at around 3.30am when it is expected to declare its result.

Pollsters have said the town is likely to be a useful indicator of national sentiment because the feelings of its residents toward the EU are close to the national average and split down the middle.

Campaigners who have spent days leafleting in the market square say immigration and sovereignty have weighed heavily on the minds of leavers, while peace, security, and a seat at the EU negotiating table have all been commonly cited reasons to remain.

Cait Sinclair, an observer for the Greens who has passed the time outside the polling station at the Lancaster Friends Meeting House making toy woolly sheep, said most people she had spoken to in recent days had already made up their minds.

The team at Leave.EU, the unofficial Brexit campaign backed by Nigel Farage, are gearing up for their event tonight where the Ukip leader is expected to be speaking.

There’s even a hashtag for those of us excited enough to follow the night live on Twitter (#Brexitparty).

It is being billed as a thank you to supporters, press and volunteers – not a victory party – and will take place at a central London location.

Mr Farage will give a speech just after 11pm when the polls have closed and there will also be entertainment from stars including Gwen Dickey and Alexander O’Neal.

After the referendum comes the fallout. Speculation in Westminster has been dominated by the impact on the Tories and their leadership after the party’s biggest split for a generation, writes Ben Riley Smith.

The key question, it seems, is what happens to the emotional euroscepticism that has been built up over the last few months of intense campaigning – and indeed the last few decades.

If tomorrow brings a Brexit result, the question is a moot point. But if there is a Remain vote, it will dominate throughout the summer and potentially all the way up to the Tory leadership contest, due before 2020.

Four potential scenarios have been talked about in the corridors of Westminster that are worth considering, some or all of which could happen after the referendum.

Read more about the possibility of a Ukip surge,  no confidence letters, a Maastricht-style rebellion and Tory defections here.

The pound hit a six-month high against the dollar yesterday as markets rallied on the final day of trading before the EU referendum result, Ben Riley Smith writes.

The FTSE 100 was up more than 1.2 per cent amid signs of confidence in Britain’s economic future, reaching its highest level for two months.

Bookmakers also saw a flurry of late activity as the referendum became the biggest political betting event in history, with Betfair estimating it had taken stakes worth £56m.

It came despite pollsters suggesting the result was too close to call with both camps being put in the lead in different surveys released before voting.

Numerous hedge funds have commissioned their own exit polls at a cost of up to £500,000 which ask people how they voted when they leave polling stations.

The results would help traders get an insight into the way the vote would go ahead of the public, with the polls remaining private.

It has led to accusations that bankers are exploiting the EU referendum for personal gain.

The pound broke through $1.49 against the dollar for the first time since December yesterday – a rise of around 2 per cent – before shedding some of those gains later in the day.

Meanwhile the FTSE 100 index of leading shares added closed at 6338 – the highest for eight week.

The increases were the second major rise in a week after Monday’s trading saw the pound post its biggest rise in eight years and the FTSE jump by 3 per cent.

The referendum has seen record amounts staked on the result, in part due to a late flurry of bets with the result hanging in the balance on Thursday.

Betfair said they took £5m on the EU referendum yesterday morning and was expecting the same amount to be place again by the end of the day.

“The Scottish referendum saw nearly £10m traded on the day, so we’re anticipating at least that amount,” a spokesman for the firm said.

The spokesman added their biggest bet of yesterday morning had been £28,500 on a Remain result, while eight bets of £20,000 or more also being placed.

– Telegraph

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